SPR was commissioned to investigate improved approaches to quantifying energy efficiency and electrification for AEMO. SPR built up our autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) forecasts from the technology up rather than from historical intensity residuals, combining end-use shares, technology mix within each end-use, and technology-level improvement rates, resolved by state, fuel and year to 2060. To quantify electrification in the historical period we tracked individual gas connections in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Queensland over 2015–25, sorted each into consumption cohorts against a fixed baseline and decomposed annual demand change into new connections, weather, efficiency and electrification. In addition to a final report, both workstreams were delivered as documented, reusable models, so AEMO can update the inputs and repeat the decomposition.