SPR was commissioned by the NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water to develop a business-as-usual baseline projection of stationary energy use and greenhouse gas emissions for the NSW built environment to 2050. The baseline was prepared to support the refresh of the NSW Net Zero Plan and related analytical work.
The projection covers electricity, gas, LPG and diesel consumption across the residential, commercial and industrial sectors, with electricity reported on both an underlying and delivered basis. Data centre load is identified and resolved separately. The methodology draws on SPR's energy efficiency forecasting work for AEMO's Integrated System Plan, with key inputs recalibrated to remove embedded assumptions about future policy change and to better separate autonomous efficiency improvement from electrification. Existing policy impacts, including the Energy Savings Scheme, GEMS, NABERS, CBD and the NCC, are modelled on a frozen-policy basis. The report also includes an indicative projection of upfront embodied carbon emissions from new building construction, drawing on earlier work by SPR for NABERS. Results are aligned with AEMO's Slower Growth and Step Change scenarios.